Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 63.09%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 14.71%.

The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.74%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (5.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.

Result
Akhmat Grozny	Draw	Fakel
63.09% ( 1.38)	22.19% ( -0.46)	14.71% ( -0.92)

Both teams to score 44.03% (

-0.73)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.36% (

0.16)

52.64% (

-0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.71% (

0.13)

74.28% (

-0.13)

Akhmat Grozny Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.86% (

0.52)

16.14% (

-0.52)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.42% (

0.94)

45.58% (

-0.94)

Fakel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.51% (

-1.2)

47.49% (

1.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.14% (

-0.91)

82.86% (

0.91)

Score Analysis

Akhmat Grozny 63.09%

Fakel 14.71%

Draw 22.19%

Akhmat Grozny	Draw	Fakel
1-0 @ 13.98% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 12.74% ( 0.36) 2-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 7.75% ( 0.35) 3-1 @ 5.77% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 3.53% ( 0.22) 4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.1) 4-2 @ 0.98% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.81% Total : 63.09%	1-1 @ 10.41% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 7.67% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 3.54% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.58% Total : 22.19%	0-1 @ 5.71% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.23) 0-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.04% Total : 14.71%