Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 83.24%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 4.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.1%) and 1-0 (13.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.56%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (2.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.