Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 71.19%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 10.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.46%) and 3-0 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.72%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (4.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rostov would win this match.