Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 52.15%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 23.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Orenburg win it was 0-1 (6.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rostov would win this match.