Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 46.23%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.31%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 1-0 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.