Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 40.14%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 33.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 (9.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.