Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 39.08%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 35.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 1-0 (8.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.