Championship

Championship | Gameweek 2

Aug 17, 2024 at 12.30pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
1 - 0
Middlesbrough

Jackson (14')
Mendez-Laing (40'), Elder (67'), Jackson (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Latte Lath (42')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Derby County and Middlesbrough, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Derby 2-1 Chesterfield
Tuesday, August 13 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup

Goals
for

Middlesbrough

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Leeds 0-3 Middlesbrough
Wednesday, August 14 at 8pm in EFL Cup

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 31.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 0-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Middlesbrough
43.05% ( -2.21)	25.32% ( -0.18)	31.63% ( 2.39)

Both teams to score 55.42% (

1.83)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.84% (

1.82)

48.16% (

-1.82)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.69% (

1.65)

70.31% (

-1.65)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.68% (

-0.25)

22.32% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.21% (

-0.38)

55.79% (

0.38)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.34% (

2.58)

28.66% (

-2.58)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.52% (

3.11)

64.48% (

-3.11)

Score Analysis

Derby County 43.05%

Middlesbrough 31.63%

Draw 25.31%

Derby County	Draw	Middlesbrough
1-0 @ 9.59% ( -0.82) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 7.19% ( -0.68) 3-1 @ 4.5% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 3.6% ( -0.37) 3-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.12) 4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.15) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.28% Total : 43.05%	1-1 @ 11.98% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.5) 2-2 @ 5.62% ( 0.29) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.31%	0-1 @ 7.99% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( 0.44) 0-2 @ 4.99% ( 0.33) 1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.39) 2-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.27) 0-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.27) 1-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.18) Other @ 2.64% Total : 31.63%