Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 38.77%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 34.71% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.39%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 1-0 (9.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.

Result
Barnsley	Draw	Derby County
34.71% ( 0.22)	26.51% ( 0.02)	38.77% ( -0.24)

Both teams to score 52.38% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.53% (

-0.06)

52.46% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.86% (

-0.05)

74.13% (

0.05)

Barnsley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.19% (

0.11)

28.8% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.34% (

0.14)

64.66% (

-0.13)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.57% (

-0.16)

26.42% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.4% (

-0.22)

61.59% (

0.22)

Score Analysis

Barnsley 34.71%

Derby County 38.77%

Draw 26.5%

Barnsley	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 9.47% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.85% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 3.26% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.45% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.17% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.62% Total : 34.71%	1-1 @ 12.6% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.5%	0-1 @ 10.13% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.39% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 6.74% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 3.72% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.25% Total : 38.77%