Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 54.94%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 20.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.79%) and 1-2 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 1-0 (7.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.

Result
Shrewsbury Town	Draw	Derby County
20.29% ( -0.02)	24.77% ( -0.02)	54.94% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 46.93% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.66% (

0.03)

54.33% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.28% (

0.02)

75.72% (

-0.03)

Shrewsbury Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.46% (

-0)

41.54%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.96% (

-0)

78.03% (

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.27% (

0.02)

19.72% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.25% (

0.04)

51.74% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Shrewsbury Town 20.29%

Derby County 54.93%

Draw 24.76%

Shrewsbury Town	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 7.2% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 5.13% ( -0) 2-0 @ 3.16% ( -0) 3-1 @ 1.5% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.22% 3-0 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 1.15% Total : 20.29%	1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.19% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.17% ( 0) Other @ 0.72% Total : 24.76%	0-1 @ 13.3% 0-2 @ 10.79% 1-2 @ 9.48% ( 0) 0-3 @ 5.84% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 5.13% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 2.37% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.25% ( 0) 1-4 @ 2.08% ( 0) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 2.76% Total : 54.93%