Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 52.77%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 23.97% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.69%) and 0-2 (8.65%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 2-1 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.

Result
Chesterfield	Draw	Derby County
23.97% ( 0.14)	23.26% ( 0.04)	52.77% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 56.31% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.74% (

-0.05)

44.26% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.37% (

-0.05)

66.64% (

0.05)

Chesterfield Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.66% (

0.09)

32.35% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.15% (

0.1)

68.86% (

-0.09)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.24% (

-0.08)

16.77% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.3% (

-0.15)

46.7% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

Chesterfield 23.97%

Derby County 52.77%

Draw 23.26%

Chesterfield	Draw	Derby County
2-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.12% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.32% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.54% Total : 23.97%	1-1 @ 10.93% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.26%	1-2 @ 9.76% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.69% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.65% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 5.81% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 5.15% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.59% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 2.3% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.15% Total : 52.77%