Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 71.26%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Maidenhead United had a probability of 12.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 3-0 (7.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.22%), while for a Maidenhead United win it was 1-2 (3.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.