Middlesbrough vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.