Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 21

Feb 5, 2023 at 11.30am UK

Stadio Alberto Picco

Spezia
0 - 3
Napoli

FT(HT: 0-0)

Kvaratskhelia (47' pen.), Osimhen (68', 73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Spezia and Napoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Spezia

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Bologna 2-0 Spezia
Friday, January 27 at 5.30pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Napoli

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Napoli 2-1 Roma
Sunday, January 29 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 73.44%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 10.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.32%) and 0-3 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.52%), while for a Spezia win it was 2-1 (3.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
Spezia	Draw	Napoli
10.5% ( 0.03)	16.05% ( -0.05)	73.44% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 51.67% (

0.3)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.24% (

0.33)

35.75% (

-0.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.17% (

0.36)

57.82% (

-0.36)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.4% (

0.28)

43.6% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.21% (

0.23)

79.79% (

-0.23)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.62% (

0.08)

8.38% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.84% (

0.21)

29.15% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Spezia 10.5%

Napoli 73.43%

Draw 16.05%

Spezia	Draw	Napoli
2-1 @ 3.12% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 3.03% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 1.26% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.02% Total : 10.5%	1-1 @ 7.52% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 3.65% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.01% Total : 16.05%	0-2 @ 11.22% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 9.28% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 7.7% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 5.75% ( -0) 1-4 @ 4.78% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.04) 0-5 @ 2.85% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 2.37% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.98% ( 0.03) 0-6 @ 1.18% ( 0.01) 2-5 @ 0.98% ( 0.02) 1-6 @ 0.98% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.78% Total : 73.43%