Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 79.89%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 7.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.58%) and 2-1 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.03%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-2 (2.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.