Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 51.47%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 25.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.86%) and 0-2 (8.01%). The likeliest Spezia win was 2-1 (6.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lecce would win this match.