Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 71.66%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 11.78%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 3-0 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.64%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-2 (3.46%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.