Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 44.88%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.19%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Spezia win was 2-1 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.