Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 42.9%. A win for Leicester City had a probability of 33.09% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.88%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest Leicester City win was 1-2 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.