Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 6

Sep 30, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

OPEL ARENA

Mainz
0 - 3
B. Leverkusen

Fernandes (58'), Gruda (75'), Richter (90+2'), Barreiro (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-1)

van den Berg (18' og.), Grimaldo (59'), Hofmann (65')
Xhaka (4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Augsburg 2-1 Mainz
Saturday, September 23 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 4-1 Heidenheim
Sunday, September 24 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

We said: Mainz 05 1-4 Bayer Leverkusen

While winless Mainz have conceded 14 goals in five Bundesliga matches this season, unbeaten Leverkusen have scored 17 goals in five league outings, so we expect Alonso's men to heap more misery on the 05ers by notching another high-scoring victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 44.85%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.7%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-0 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
29.75%	25.4%	44.85%

Both teams to score 54.23%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.71% (

49.28% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.66% (

71.34% (

-0)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.48% (

-0)

30.52%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.26% (

66.73% (

-0)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.04%

21.95% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.76%

55.24% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 29.75%

Bayer Leverkusen 44.84%

Draw 25.39%

Mainz 05	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
1-0 @ 7.95% ( -0) 2-1 @ 7.16% 2-0 @ 4.72% 3-1 @ 2.83% 3-2 @ 2.15% 3-0 @ 1.87% Other @ 3.08% Total : 29.75%	1-1 @ 12.05% 0-0 @ 6.7% 2-2 @ 5.43% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.09% Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.39%	0-1 @ 10.15% 1-2 @ 9.14% 0-2 @ 7.7% 1-3 @ 4.62% 0-3 @ 3.89% 2-3 @ 2.74% 1-4 @ 1.75% 0-4 @ 1.48% 2-4 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.33% Total : 44.84%