Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 21

Feb 19, 2023 at 6.30pm UK

BayArena

B. Leverkusen
2 - 3
Mainz

Amiri (32'), Schick (58')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Caci (26'), Barreiro (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 2-3 Monaco
Thursday, February 16 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Mainz 3-1 Augsburg
Saturday, February 11 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 57.2%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 20.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.

Result
Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Mainz 05
57.2% ( 0.3)	22.45% ( -0.09)	20.34% ( -0.21)

Both teams to score 54.03% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.08% (

0.11)

44.92% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.72% (

0.1)

67.27% (

-0.11)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.53% (

0.13)

15.46% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.67% (

0.25)

44.33% (

-0.26)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.91% (

-0.15)

36.08% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.13% (

-0.16)

72.86% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen 57.19%

Mainz 05 20.34%

Draw 22.45%

Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Mainz 05
1-0 @ 10.41% 2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.72% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 6.05% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 3.14% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.88% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.07% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.5% Total : 57.19%	1-1 @ 10.61% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.58% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.45%	0-1 @ 5.69% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 2.9% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.81% Total : 20.34%