Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 19

Feb 4, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Union Berlin
2 - 1
Mainz

Behrens (32'), Siebatcheu (84')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ingvartsen (79' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Union Berlin 2-1 Wolfsburg
Tuesday, January 31 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

Top scorers

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Mainz 0-4 Bayern
Wednesday, February 1 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 56.95%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 19.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (6.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Union Berlin in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Union Berlin.

Result
Union Berlin	Draw	Mainz 05
56.95% ( -0.78)	23.61% ( 0.38)	19.44% ( 0.4)

Both teams to score 48.96% (

-0.49)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.05% (

-1)

50.95% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.18% (

-0.88)

72.82% (

0.89)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.31% (

-0.64)

17.69% (

0.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.67% (

-1.12)

48.32% (

1.13)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.48% (

-0.13)

40.52% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.88% (

-0.12)

77.12% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

Union Berlin 56.94%

Mainz 05 19.44%

Draw 23.61%

Union Berlin	Draw	Mainz 05
1-0 @ 12.41% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 10.75% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.72% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 6.21% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 5.61% ( -0.15) 4-0 @ 2.69% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 2.43% ( -0.12) 4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.56% Total : 56.94%	1-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 7.17% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.84% Total : 23.61%	0-1 @ 6.47% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 2.93% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.13% Total : 19.44%