Though it is expected to be a fiercely-contested match between the two top-four candidates, Freiburg's excellent home record and more consistent recent form gives Die Breisgau-Brasilianer the slight edge against their Berliner counterparts.
Defeat would be a disappointing end to the first half of the season for Urs Fischer's side, but the might of Gregoritsch, Grido and the stalwart back line will be too much to withstand for a Union team in much need of a long winter's rest.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 46.4%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 27.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (8.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
0.91) 
-0.03) 
