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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 59.75%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 18.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
Result | ||
RB Leipzig | Draw | Freiburg |
59.75% ( 1.66) | 21.36% ( -0.51) | 18.88% ( -1.16) |
Both teams to score 55.2% ( -0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.84% ( 0.6) | 42.16% ( -0.61) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.43% ( 0.6) | 64.56% ( -0.61) |
RB Leipzig Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.27% ( 0.71) | 13.73% ( -0.72) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.01% ( 1.4) | 40.99% ( -1.41) |
Freiburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.99% ( -0.85) | 36.01% ( 0.85) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.21% ( -0.88) | 72.79% ( 0.87) |
Score Analysis |
RB Leipzig | Draw | Freiburg |
2-1 @ 9.96% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.82% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.75% ( 0.24) 3-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.18) 3-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.32) 3-2 @ 3.37% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.27% ( 0.17) 4-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.24) 4-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.1) 5-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.12) Other @ 3.12% Total : 59.75% | 1-1 @ 10.02% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 4.94% ( -0.14) 3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.35% | 1-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.25) 0-1 @ 5.05% ( -0.26) 0-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.2) 1-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.66% Total : 18.88% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 12 | 30 | 33 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 29 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 18 | 15 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
5 | Freiburg | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 24 |
6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 22 |
7 | Werder Bremen | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 22 |
8 | Wolfsburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 21 |
9 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 21 |
10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
11 | Stuttgart | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 20 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 16 |
14 | Hoffenheim | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
15 | St Pauli | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 11 |
16 | Heidenheim | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 37 | -23 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 3 |
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