/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Ffreilog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fmailog.png)
-
Michael Gregoritsch
3'
-
Daniel-Kofi Kyereh
37'
-
Aaron Caricol
52'
Freiburg vs Mainz 05 - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F22%2F36%2Fchristian-streich.jpeg)
Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Freiburg in this match.
Result
Freiburg
47.11%
▼
(-0.56)
Draw
24.2%
▼
(-0.12)
Mainz 05
28.68%
▲
(+0.68)
Both Teams to Score:
57.52%
▲
(+0.88)
Goals
Over 2.5
55.34%
▲
(+0.93)
Under 2.5
44.66%
▼
(-0.94)
Over 3.5
32.98%
▲
(+0.90)
Under 3.5
67.02%
▼
(-0.90)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5
80.91%
▲
(+0.14)
Under 0.5
19.08%
▼
(-0.14)
Over 1.5
49.31%
▲
(+0.24)
Under 1.5
50.69%
▼
(-0.24)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5
71.09%
▲
(+0.97)
Under 0.5
28.91%
▼
(-0.97)
Over 1.5
35.21%
▲
(+1.18)
Under 1.5
64.79%
▼
(-1.18)
Score analysis
Freiburg
47.11%
Draw
24.2%
Mainz 05
28.68%
Freiburg
2-1
@
9.39%
▼
(-0.05)
1-0 @ 9.14% ▼ (-0.34)
2-0 @ 7.57% ▼ (-0.25)
3-1 @ 5.19%
3-0 @ 4.18% ▼ (-0.12)
3-2 @ 3.22% ▲ (+0.09)
4-1 @ 2.15% ▲ (+0.01)
4-0 @ 1.73% ▼ (-0.05)
4-2 @ 1.33% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 47.11%
1-0 @ 9.14% ▼ (-0.34)
2-0 @ 7.57% ▼ (-0.25)
3-1 @ 5.19%
3-0 @ 4.18% ▼ (-0.12)
3-2 @ 3.22% ▲ (+0.09)
4-1 @ 2.15% ▲ (+0.01)
4-0 @ 1.73% ▼ (-0.05)
4-2 @ 1.33% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 47.11%
Draw
1-1
@
11.34%
▼
(-0.10)
2-2 @ 5.83% ▲ (+0.13)
0-0 @ 5.52% ▼ (-0.23)
3-3 @ 1.33% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.2%
2-2 @ 5.83% ▲ (+0.13)
0-0 @ 5.52% ▼ (-0.23)
3-3 @ 1.33% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.2%
Mainz 05
1-2
@
7.04%
▲
(+0.13)
0-1 @ 6.85% ▼ (-0.10)
0-2 @ 4.25% ▲ (+0.06)
1-3 @ 2.91% ▲ (+0.13)
2-3 @ 2.41% ▲ (+0.12)
0-3 @ 1.76% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 28.68%
0-1 @ 6.85% ▼ (-0.10)
0-2 @ 4.25% ▲ (+0.06)
1-3 @ 2.91% ▲ (+0.13)
2-3 @ 2.41% ▲ (+0.12)
0-3 @ 1.76% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 28.68%
Anton Stach
7'