Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Oct 25, 2022 at 8pm UK

Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig
3 - 2
Real Madrid

Gvardiol (13'), Nkunku (18'), Werner (81')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Junior (44'), Rodrygo (90+4' pen.)

Reaction

RB Leipzig's Josko Gvardiol celebrates scoring their first goal with Christopher Nkunku and Willi Orban on October 25, 2022

RB Leipzig on the cusp of qualification after win over Real Madrid

RB Leipzig are on the verge of making it into the Champions League last 16 after beating Real Madrid 3-2 at the Red Bull Arena.

Oct 25, 20:55

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

RB Leipzig

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Augsburg 3-3 RB Leipzig
Saturday, October 22 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Real Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Real Madrid 3-1 Sevilla
Saturday, October 22 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 52.71%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 25.77% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.92%) and 0-1 (6.85%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.

Result
RB Leipzig	Draw	Real Madrid
25.77% ( 0.02)	21.52% ( -0.01)	52.71% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 64.55% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.71% (

0.05)

34.29% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.81% (

0.06)

56.19% (

-0.06)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.42% (

0.05)

25.58% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.55% (

0.06)

60.45% (

-0.06)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.74% (

0.01)

13.26% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.95% (

0.03)

40.05% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

RB Leipzig 25.77%

Real Madrid 52.71%

Draw 21.52%

RB Leipzig	Draw	Real Madrid
2-1 @ 6.37% ( 0) 1-0 @ 4.62% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 3.15% 3-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.9% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.43% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.38% Total : 25.77%	1-1 @ 9.34% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.38% Total : 21.52%	1-2 @ 9.44% ( -0) 0-2 @ 6.92% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 6.36% ( 0) 0-3 @ 4.66% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 4.33% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 3.21% ( 0) 0-4 @ 2.36% ( -0) 2-4 @ 2.19% ( 0) 1-5 @ 1.3% ( 0) 3-4 @ 1% ( 0) 0-5 @ 0.95% Other @ 3.15% Total : 52.71%