Champions League
Sep 14, 2022 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
  • Federico Valverde 80' goal
  • Marco Asensio 90'+1' goal

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

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The match

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Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Sep 6, 2022 8.00pm
Celtic 0 - 3 Real Madrid

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Sep 6, 2022 8.00pm
RB Leipzig 1 - 4 Shakhtar

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 60.46%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 16.98%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.53%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a RB Leipzig win it was 0-1 (5.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result

Real Madrid 60.46% (-0.18)
Draw 22.56% (+0.05)
RB Leipzig 16.98% (+0.14)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.76% (+0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5 49.74% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 50.26% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 27.79% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 72.21% (-0.05)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 83.79% (-0.04)
Under 0.5 16.21% (+0.05)
Over 1.5 54.3% (-0.08)
Under 1.5 45.7% (+0.08)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5 57% (+0.21)
Under 0.5 43% (-0.21)
Over 1.5 20.71% (+0.17)
Under 1.5 79.29% (-0.17)

Score analysis

Real Madrid 60.45%
Draw 22.55%
RB Leipzig 16.98%
Real Madrid
1-0 @ 12.68% (-0.05)
2-0 @ 11.53% (-0.07)
2-1 @ 9.74% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 7% (-0.05)
3-1 @ 5.91% (-0.01)
4-0 @ 3.18% (-0.03)
4-1 @ 2.69% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.49% (+0.02)
5-0 @ 1.16% (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1.13% (+0.01)
Other @ 2.94%
Total : 60.45%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.7% (+0.02)
0-0 @ 6.97% (-0.02)
2-2 @ 4.11% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 22.55%
RB Leipzig
0-1 @ 5.88% (+0.03)
1-2 @ 4.52% (+0.04)
0-2 @ 2.48% (+0.03)
1-3 @ 1.27% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 1.16% (+0.02)
Other @ 1.68%
Total : 16.98%

Build-up

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