Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 45.57%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 27.37% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.84%) and 0-2 (8.75%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-0 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.