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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 64.6%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 16.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 1-0 (8.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.74%), while for a Bayer Leverkusen win it was 1-2 (4.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
Result | ||
RB Leipzig | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
64.6% ( 0.31) | 19.11% ( -0.11) | 16.28% ( -0.21) |
Both teams to score 57.77% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.75% ( 0.11) | 36.25% ( -0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.63% ( 0.12) | 58.37% ( -0.12) |
RB Leipzig Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.41% ( 0.11) | 10.58% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.64% ( 0.25) | 34.35% ( -0.25) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.62% ( -0.18) | 35.38% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.86% ( -0.18) | 72.14% ( 0.18) |
Score Analysis |
RB Leipzig | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
2-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 8.41% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 7.07% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 4.12% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.82% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.14% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.85% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.78% ( 0.03) 5-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.87% Total : 64.6% | 1-1 @ 8.74% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.74% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.21% Total : 19.11% | 1-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 3.89% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.49% Total : 16.28% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 12 | 30 | 33 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 29 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 18 | 15 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
5 | Freiburg | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 24 |
6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 22 |
7 | Werder Bremen | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 22 |
8 | Wolfsburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 21 |
9 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 21 |
10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
11 | Stuttgart | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 20 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 16 |
14 | Hoffenheim | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
15 | St Pauli | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 11 |
16 | Heidenheim | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 37 | -23 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 3 |
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