Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 49.62%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 27.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.