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Atletico Madrid logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 26, 2022 at 8pm UK
Vicente Calderon Stadium
Leverkusen logo

Atletico
2 - 2
B. Leverkusen

Carrasco (22'), De Paul (50')
Gimenez (79'), Kondogbia (87')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Diaby (9'), Hudson-Odoi (29')
Alonso (41'), Hradecky (65'), Bakker (66'), Hincapie (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Atletico Madrid 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen

We are expecting an entertaining game here, as two talented sides battle it out in an all-or-nothing clash. The visitors will be dangerous with the likes of Moussa Diaby on the break, but we think the quality of Simeone's side should be enough to seal a crucial win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 42.24%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 30.7% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 (9.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawBayer Leverkusen
42.24% (0.031999999999996 0.03) 27.05% (-0.071000000000002 -0.07) 30.7% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Both teams to score 49.56% (0.226 0.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.46% (0.282 0.28)55.53% (-0.285 -0.28)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.29% (0.23 0.23)76.71% (-0.232 -0.23)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.02% (0.14399999999999 0.14)25.97% (-0.147 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39% (0.195 0.2)60.99% (-0.19900000000001 -0.2)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.95% (0.17400000000001 0.17)33.05% (-0.17599999999999 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.36% (0.193 0.19)69.64% (-0.19500000000001 -0.2)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 42.24%
    Bayer Leverkusen 30.7%
    Draw 27.05%
Atletico MadridDrawBayer Leverkusen
1-0 @ 11.57% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-1 @ 8.64% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.8% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.88% (0.025 0.02)
3-0 @ 3.51% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.15% (0.024 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.31% (0.014 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.18% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 42.24%
1-1 @ 12.81% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 8.58% (-0.095000000000001 -0.1)
2-2 @ 4.78% (0.034 0.03)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 27.05%
0-1 @ 9.5% (-0.059000000000001 -0.06)
1-2 @ 7.09% (0.02 0.02)
0-2 @ 5.26% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.62% (0.02 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.94% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.76% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 30.7%

How you voted: Atletico vs B. Leverkusen

Atletico Madrid
84.8%
Draw
10.0%
Bayer Leverkusen
5.2%
289
Head to Head
Sep 13, 2022 8pm
Group B
B. Leverkusen
2-0
Atletico
Andrich (84'), Diaby (87')
Odilon (32')
Nov 6, 2019 8pm
Oct 22, 2019 5.55pm
Mar 15, 2017 7.45pm
Feb 21, 2017 7.45pm
B. Leverkusen
2-4
Atletico
Bellarabi (48'), Savic (68' og.)
Henrichs (15'), Dragovic (58'), Wendell (64'), Aranguiz (74')
Niguez (17'), Griezmann (25'), Gameiro (58' pen.), Torres (86')
Torres (88'), Gabi (89'), Luis (90')
rhs 2.0
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