Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 63.39%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 14.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.97%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.38%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
63.39% ( 0.94) | 22.22% ( -0.43) | 14.4% ( -0.51) |
Both teams to score 43.24% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.7% ( 0.69) | 53.3% ( -0.68) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.15% ( 0.58) | 74.85% ( -0.58) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.73% ( 0.56) | 16.27% ( -0.56) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.18% ( 1.01) | 45.82% ( -1.01) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.64% ( -0.34) | 48.36% ( 0.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.51% ( -0.25) | 83.5% ( 0.25) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
1-0 @ 14.28% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 12.97% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.85% ( 0.23) 3-1 @ 5.7% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.17) 4-1 @ 2.59% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.75% Total : 63.38% | 1-1 @ 10.38% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 7.87% ( -0.21) 2-2 @ 3.42% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.55% Total : 22.22% | 0-1 @ 5.72% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 3.77% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.92% Total : 14.4% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 84 |
2 | Barcelona | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64 | 37 | 27 | 70 |
3 | GironaGirona | 32 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 67 | 40 | 27 | 68 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 32 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 59 | 38 | 21 | 61 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 32 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 52 | 30 | 22 | 58 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 51 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 40 | 38 | 2 | 48 |
8 | Valencia | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 42 |
10 | Getafe | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 38 | 44 | -6 | 40 |
11 | Osasuna | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 39 |
12 | Sevilla | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 37 |
13 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 37 |
14 | AlavesAlaves | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 35 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 34 |
16 | Celta Vigo | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 31 |
17 | Mallorca | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 31 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 32 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 25 |
19 | Granada | 32 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 61 | -28 | 18 |
20 | Almeria | 32 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 64 | -33 | 14 |
> La Liga Full Table |