Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 36%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 34.49% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.34%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 1-0 (12.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.