Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 58.42%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Girona had a probability of 17.84%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Girona win it was 0-1 (6.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.