Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.72%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 19.04%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (7.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Atletico Madrid in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Atletico Madrid.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 55.72% | 25.25% | 19.04% |
| Both teams to score 43.82% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.53% | 57.47% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.73% | 78.27% |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.35% | 20.65% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.77% | 53.23% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.22% | 44.78% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.24% | 80.76% |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 14.58% 2-0 @ 11.5% 2-1 @ 9.24% 3-0 @ 6.05% 3-1 @ 4.86% 4-0 @ 2.39% 3-2 @ 1.95% 4-1 @ 1.92% Other @ 3.22% Total : 55.71% | 1-1 @ 11.72% 0-0 @ 9.25% 2-2 @ 3.71% Other @ 0.57% Total : 25.25% | 0-1 @ 7.43% 1-2 @ 4.71% 0-2 @ 2.99% 1-3 @ 1.26% 2-3 @ 1% Other @ 1.66% Total : 19.04% |