Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 45.79%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.62%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.