Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Espanyol win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 32.72% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Espanyol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.86%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (11.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.