Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 69.9%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 11.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.47%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.76%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (4.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.