Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 50.07%. A win for Dynamo Kiev had a probability of 25.34% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.76%). The likeliest Dynamo Kiev win was 0-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtar Donetsk would win this match.