Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zorya Luhansk win with a probability of 43.26%. A win for Dynamo Kiev had a probability of 31.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zorya Luhansk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Dynamo Kiev win was 0-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zorya Luhansk would win this match.