Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zorya Luhansk win with a probability of 51.55%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Vorskla Poltava had a probability of 24.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zorya Luhansk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.59%), while for a Vorskla Poltava win it was 0-1 (6.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zorya Luhansk would win this match.