Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zorya Luhansk win with a probability of 41.75%. A win for Universitatea Craiova had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zorya Luhansk win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Universitatea Craiova win was 0-1 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Zorya Luhansk in this match.