Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 48.44%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 27.64% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 1-2 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.