DFB-Pokal | Round of 16

Feb 1, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

OPEL ARENA

Mainz
0 - 4
Bayern

FT(HT: 0-3)

Maxim Choupo-Moting (17'), Musiala (30'), Sane (44'), Davies (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

DFB-Pokal

Last Game: Mainz 5-2 VfL Bochum
Saturday, January 28 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bayern Munich

All competitions

DFB-Pokal

Last Game: Bayern 1-1 Frankfurt
Saturday, January 28 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 69.42%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 14.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.07%) and 1-3 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.93%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (3.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Bayern Munich
14.13% ( 0.08)	16.45% ( 0.12)	69.42% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 62.75% (

-0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

72.39% (

-0.39)

27.61% (

0.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

51.74% (

-0.5)

48.26% (

0.49)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.64% (

-0.17)

32.36% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.12% (

-0.19)

68.88% (

0.19)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.77% (

-0.14)

7.23% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

73.79% (

-0.36)

26.21% (

0.36)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 14.13%

Bayern Munich 69.42%

Draw 16.45%

Mainz 05	Draw	Bayern Munich
2-1 @ 3.91% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 1.49% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 1.47% ( 0) Other @ 2.69% Total : 14.13%	1-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( 0) 0-0 @ 2.34% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.35% Total : 16.45%	1-2 @ 9.11% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 8.07% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 7.98% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 7.07% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.15% ( 0.1) 1-4 @ 5.24% ( -0.05) 0-4 @ 4.64% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 4.5% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 2.96% ( -0.04) 1-5 @ 2.75% ( -0.04) 0-5 @ 2.44% ( -0.03) 2-5 @ 1.55% ( -0.03) 1-6 @ 1.21% ( -0.03) 3-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.02) 0-6 @ 1.07% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.58% Total : 69.42%