Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 5

Sep 23, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

WWK Arena

Augsburg
2 - 1
Mainz

Demirovic (15', 45')
Dorsch (90+1'), Beljo (90+5')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Ajorque (6')
Gruda (74'), Zentner (77'), Jae-sung (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Augsburg and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Augsburg

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: RB Leipzig 3-0 Augsburg
Saturday, September 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Mainz 1-3 Stuttgart
Saturday, September 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Augsburg win with a probability of 37.53%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 37.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Augsburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.04%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Augsburg would win this match.

Result
Augsburg	Draw	Mainz 05
37.53% ( 0.06)	25.4% ( 0.03)	37.07% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 56.34% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.51% (

-0.14)

47.49% (

0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.3% (

-0.13)

69.7% (

0.14)

Augsburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.18% (

-0.04)

24.82% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.6% (

-0.05)

59.4% (

0.05)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.93% (

-0.11)

25.07% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.25% (

-0.16)

59.75% (

0.16)

Score Analysis

Augsburg 37.53%

Mainz 05 37.07%

Draw 25.4%

Augsburg	Draw	Mainz 05
1-0 @ 8.67% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.36% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.88% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.81% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.35% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.98% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 1.82% Total : 37.53%	1-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.4%	0-1 @ 8.61% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.3% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.95% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.83% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.75% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.77% Total : 37.07%