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Bundesliga

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Bundesliga | Gameweek 4
Sep 16, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
Stuttgart

Mainz
1 - 3
Stuttgart

Barreiro (69')
Caci (11')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Guirassy (56', 84', 90+7')
Stiller (60'), Anton (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Stuttgart, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Werder Bremen 4-0 Mainz
Saturday, September 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Stuttgart

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Stuttgart 5-0 Freiburg
Saturday, September 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 42.53%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 32.43% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-0 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawStuttgart
32.43% (0.021000000000001 0.02)25.04% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)42.53% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 56.69% (0.029000000000003 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.36% (0.033000000000001 0.03)46.64% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.09% (0.032 0.03)68.91% (-0.029999999999987 -0.03)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.6% (0.030000000000001 0.03)27.4% (-0.029 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.13% (0.036999999999999 0.04)62.87% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Stuttgart Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.09% (0.0069999999999908 0.01)21.91% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.82% (0.009999999999998 0.01)55.18% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 32.43%
    Stuttgart 42.53%
    Draw 25.04%
Mainz 05DrawStuttgart
1-0 @ 7.77% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-1 @ 7.64% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 5.03% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-1 @ 3.3% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 2.5% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-0 @ 2.17% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 1.07% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 32.43%
1-1 @ 11.8%
0-0 @ 6% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.8% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-3 @ 1.27% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 25.04%
0-1 @ 9.12% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.96% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 6.92% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.53% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-3 @ 3.5% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 2.93% (0.0020000000000002 0)
1-4 @ 1.72%
0-4 @ 1.33% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 1.11% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 42.53%

How you voted: Mainz vs Stuttgart

Mainz 05
20.0%
Draw
12.0%
Stuttgart
68.0%
25
Head to Head
May 21, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 33
Mainz
1-4
Stuttgart
Ingvartsen (23')
Kohr (61'), Bell (75'), Ajorque (90+5')
Endo (41'), Guirassy (64'), Fuhrich (78'), Coulibaly (90+1')
Endo (73')
> Preview
Jan 21, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 16
Stuttgart
1-1
Mainz
Guirassy (36')
Ingvartsen (40' pen.)
> Preview
Apr 16, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 30
Mainz
0-0
Stuttgart
Matarazzo (45+2'), Stenzel (70')
> Preview
Nov 26, 2021 7.30pm
Gameweek 13
Stuttgart
2-1
Mainz
Ito (21'), Sosa (51')
Mangala (36'), Sosa (90+2')
Hack (39')
Caricol (9'), Boetius (90+5')
> Preview
Jan 29, 2021 7.30pm
Gameweek 19
Stuttgart
2-0
Mainz
Kalajdzic (55'), Wamangituka (72')
Forster (33')

Niakhate (21'), Bell (43'), Onisiwo (45+1'), Svensson (54'), Kohr (81')
> Preview