Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 53.98%. A win for Stuttgart had a probability of 24.75% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.09%) and 1-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Stuttgart win was 1-2 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.