Stuttgart
Bundesliga Relegation Playoffs | Finals | 1st Leg
Jun 1, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
TBC
Hamburg logo

Stuttgart
3 - 0
Hamburger SV

Mavropanos (1'), Vagnomann (51'), Guirassy (54')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Bundesliga Relegation Playoff first-leg clash between Stuttgart and Hamburger SV, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stuttgart

All competitions
Last Game: Stuttgart 1-1 Hoffenheim
Saturday, May 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Hamburger SV

All competitions
Last Game: SV Sandhausen 0-1 Hamburger SV
Sunday, May 28 at 2.30pm in 2.Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 40.25%. A win for Stuttgart had a probability of 36.78% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.21%) and 0-2 (5.26%). The likeliest Stuttgart win was 2-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.

Result
StuttgartDrawHamburger SV
36.78% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)22.98% (0.0030000000000001 0)40.25% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Both teams to score 65.36% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.2% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)35.8% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.12% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)57.87% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Stuttgart Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.06% (0.0019999999999953 0)19.94%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.9% (0.0019999999999953 0)52.09%
Hamburger SV Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.64% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)18.36% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.51% (-0.012 -0.01)49.49% (0.014000000000003 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Stuttgart 36.78%
    Hamburger SV 40.25%
    Draw 22.97%
StuttgartDrawHamburger SV
2-1 @ 8.07% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-0 @ 5.9% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-0 @ 4.76% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-1 @ 4.34% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 3.67% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-0 @ 2.56% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.75% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.48%
4-0 @ 1.03%
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 36.78%
1-1 @ 10%
2-2 @ 6.84% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-0 @ 3.66% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 2.08%
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 22.97%
1-2 @ 8.48%
0-1 @ 6.21% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 5.26% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-3 @ 4.79% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-3 @ 3.86% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 2.97% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-4 @ 2.03% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-4 @ 1.64% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
0-4 @ 1.26% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.75%
Total : 40.25%

How you voted: 16th position upper div. vs 3rd position lower div.

16th position upper div.
62.7%
Draw
16.4%
3rd position lower div.
20.9%
67
Head to Head
May 28, 2020 7.30pm
gameweek 28
Stuttgart
3-2
Hamburger SV
Endo (47'), Gonzalez (60' pen.), Castro (90+2')
Badstuber (45'), Forster (80'), Castro (90+3')
Pohjanpalo (16'), Hunt (45+2' pen.)
Vagnomann (78'), Hunt (88')
Oct 29, 2019 5.30pm
Second Round
Hamburger SV
1-2
Stuttgart
Hunt (16' pen.)
Jatta (51'), Narey (111')
Gonzalez (2' pen.), Al Ghaddioui (113')
Kempf (11'), Karazor (18'), Castro (51'), Mangala (67'), Badstuber (107')
Oct 26, 2019 12pm
gameweek 11
Hamburger SV
6-2
Stuttgart
Kittel (13' pen., 36'), Jatta (24'), Castro (56' og.), Harnik (76'), Fein (91')
Vagnoman (74')
Gonzalez (33'), Wamangituka (63')
Kempf (49'), Forster (66'), Castro (66')
Mar 31, 2018 2.30pm
Stuttgart
1-1
Hamburger SV
Ginczek (44')
Aogo (55')
Holtby (18')
Jung (57')
Nov 4, 2017 2.30pm
Hamburger SV
3-1
Stuttgart
Hunt (20'), Kostic (65'), Arp (69')
Santos (46'), Papadopoulos (75')
Ginczek (55' pen.)
Burnic (4')
Burnic (12')
rhs 2.0


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