Mainz 05 take on Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Sunday in a potentially crucial encounter at the bottom of the table.
The two sides come into this contest in contrasting form, with Mainz taking 10 points from their last five games to move within one point of safety and six points behind Augsburg.
Match preview
© Reuters
Since appointing former player Bo Svensson as their manager at the start of the calendar year, Mainz have dramatically improved, with three wins in their last five league games providing the club with a serious opportunity of pulling off a fantastic escape from relegation.
Indeed, it was not long ago that they were marooned at the bottom of the table with Schalke 04, but last weekend's 2-1 win at Borussia Monchengladbach demonstrated their growing belief and resolve under their new manager.
Karim Onisiwo smashed the visitors into an early lead after latching onto Jeremiah St Juste's long punt forward, before Lars Stindl levelled the proceedings 20 minutes before half-time. Gladbach had several half-chances to take the lead, but Kevin Stoger scored from the bench for the second successive matchday to steal a crucial victory for Svensson's side.
While their form will rightly encourage the 41-year-old, though, he will be only too aware that there is a long way to go before Mainz can rest on their laurels. A win against Augsburg on Sunday, however, could finally see them escape the relegation zone, while simultaneously dragging a rival right into the mix.
© Reuters
Indeed, after making a superb start to the current campaign, Augsburg's form has since significantly dipped, with Heiko Herrlich's side taking only four points from their last eight league games.
However, there were green shoots of improvement in the 1-1 draw against Bayer Leverkusen last weekend, with a dreadful mistake by opposition goalkeeper Niklas Lomb allowing Florian Niederlechner to open the scoring after five minutes. The inexperienced deputy attempted to clear the ball with his left foot, but accidentally touched it with his standing foot before losing balance, with Niederlechner tapping into an empty net.
The 30-year-old proved a thorn in Leverkusen's side throughout the game, with his teammates preying on the visitors' defensive nervousness by going route one to Niederlechner, who fired narrowly over before the break.
Perhaps rallied by Peter Bosz, the Europa League side improved afterwards, but looked like falling short until Edmond Tapsoba sunk Augsburg's hearts by snatching a point with the last kick of the game after Demarai Gray's superb cross from the right flank.
Herrlich will be hoping his side can impose themselves on the game more against a fellow struggling side on Sunday, while taking confidence from the fact that his side had three shots on target against a team with Champions League qualification aspirations, which was a major improvement on previous matches.
Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: LWLWDW
Augsburg Bundesliga form: LWLLLD
Team News
© Reuters
Mainz are likely to be without Robin Quaison and Edmilson Fernandes due to knee and ankle injuries respectively, but otherwise Svensson appears to have a clean bill of health to choose from.
Stoger will be hoping his heroics from the bench against Leverkusen and Gladbach will earn him for a start, but his manager may prefer to keep the option of utilising him up his sleeve until later in the game.
Augsburg, meanwhile, will travel to Mainz without the injured trio of Iago, Alfred Finnbogason and Fredrik Jensen.
Herrlich may be tempted to restore Andre Hahn to the starting XI, with Laszlo Benes's place under threat.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St Juste, Bell, Niakhate; Da Costa, Barreiro, Kohr, Mwene; Latza; Szalai, Onisiwo
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Framberger, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai, Pedersen; Strobl, Khedira; Caligiuri, Hahn, Vargas; Niederlechner
We say: Mainz 05 1-1 Augsburg
We can envisage a cagey encounter at Mainz on Sunday, with neither side wanting to lose ground on the relegation rivals around them in the table.
Mainz are undoubtedly playing with the greater confidence at the moment, but Augsburg have a long-standing ability to dig in under Herrlich, so may prove tough to beat.
Top tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 28.42% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 0-1 (9.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
