Preview: Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV - prediction, team news, lineups

Victory for visitors Hamburger SV against Mainz 05 on Friday at Mewa Arena could be defining in their pursuit of Bundesliga survival.

Newly-promoted Hamburger are ninth with 25 points, and they are six points ahead of the 16th-placed relegation playoff spot, whereas their hosts are 14th with 21 points having played 22 league matches, one fewer than the away side.

Match preview

Mainz suffered a bruising 4-0 defeat when they clashed with second-placed Borussia Dortmund on February 13, and their only two opportunities of note came in the 88th minute from a corner when they were already trailing by four goals.

Head coach Urs Fischer will be disappointed that the result against BVB ended the club's streak of three consecutive victories, but it was only the second time his team experienced a loss in 11 matches.

The hosts have opened the scoring in just three of their 11 home Bundesliga contests, but they have enjoyed a strong period of form at Mewa Arena, winning four and drawing one of their last five at the stadium.

Die Nullfunfer have netted at least two goals in seven of their 10 most recent clashes, including against teams such as Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig.

At the other end of the pitch, Mainz have only managed to keep two clean sheets in their 22 Bundesliga fixtures, though their record of 37 goals conceded is better than the bottom four sides in the division.

Hamburger have exceeded expectations having earned promotion back to the top flight of German football, especially as only 32 points were needed in 2024-25 to secure safety.

The visitors held on to win 3-2 against Union Berlin on Valentine's Day, and they have now scored as many goals in their past three games (seven) as they had in their prior seven matches (six).

Merlin Polzin also guided the club to three clean sheets in five outings, though they conceded four goals in their three most recent clashes.

Hamburger emerged as 4-0 victors when they faced Mainz in October 2025, ending a streak of six matches without victory against their hosts.

Die Rothosen are unbeaten in their past five games, a stretch in which they won twice, and they have also triumphed in one and drawn one of their last two on the road.

Mainz 05 Bundesliga form:

Hamburger SV Bundesliga form:

Team News

Mainz are unfortunately dealing with numerous absences, with centre-backs Maxim Dal and Stefan Bell, as well as wing-back Anthony Caci, ruled out of Friday's game.

Goalkeeper Robin Zentner will also play no part, so perhaps Daniel Batz will be shielded by a three-man defence consisting of Stefan Posch, Dominik Kohr and Kacper Potulski.

Danny da Costa and Phillipp Mwene may be stationed as wing-backs, while Silas Katompa Mvumpa and Phillip Tietz are likely to start up front.

Hamburger also have a number of injuries to contend with, including to midfielder Albert Sambi Lokonga, while striker Luka Vuskovic is suspended.

Nicolai Remberg has excelled this season as the club's defensive midfielder, but without Lokonga next to him, he may be partnered instead by Fabio Vieira.

The hosts could field wide attackers Ransford Konigsdorffer and Philip Otele either side of Robert Glatzel.

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:

Batz; Posch, Kohr, Potulski; Da Costa, Lee, Sano, Amiri, Mwene; Silas, Tietz

Hamburger SV possible starting lineup:

Fernandes; Capaldo, Elfadli, Torunarigha; Jatta, Remberg, Vieira, Muheim; Konigsdorffer, Glatzel, Otele

We say: Mainz 05 1-1 Hamburger SV

Mainz may have been beaten last time out, but their overall form has been impressive, and they will prove to be challenging opponents on Sunday.

Hamburger's performances of late have also been strong, so while they could find it difficult to take three points from Mewa Arena, they may be able to take one.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.